Climateprediction.net

Climateprediction.net
volunteer computing (en) , Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing projects (en) da open-source software (en)
Bayanai
Farawa	9 Disamba 2003
Muhimmin darasi	numerical weather prediction (en)
Ma'aikaci	Jami'ar Oxford
Depends on software (en)	Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (mul)
Shafin yanar gizo	climateprediction.net

Climateprediction.net (CPDN) Aikin lissafi ne na sa kai don bincika da rage rashin tabbas a cikin Tsarin yanayi. Yana da niyyar yin wannan ta hanyar gudanar da daruruwan dubban samfuran daban-daban (babban rukunin yanayi) ta amfani da lokacin da aka ba da gudummawa na kwamfutocin mutum na yau da kullun, don haka yana haifar da kyakkyawar fahimtar yadda ƙananan canje-canje ke shafar samfuran a cikin sigogi da yawa da aka sani don rinjayar yanayin duniya.^[1]

Aikin ya dogara da tsarin BOINC inda mahalarta sa kai suka amince da gudanar da wasu matakai na aikin a gefen abokin ciniki a cikin kwamfutocin su na sirri bayan karɓar ayyuka daga gefen uwar garken don magani.

CPDN, wanda Jami'ar Oxford ke gudanarwa da farko a Ingila, ya yi amfani da ƙarin ƙarfin lissafi kuma ya samar da ƙarin bayanai fiye da kowane aikin ƙirar yanayi.^[2] Ya samar da fiye da shekaru miliyan 100 na bayanai har zuwa yanzu.^[3] Ya zuwa watan Yunin , akwai fiye da 12,000 masu shiga aiki daga ƙasashe 223 tare da jimlar BOINC credit na sama da biliyan 27, suna ba da rahoton game da 55 teraflops (aiki biliyan 55 a kowace dakika) na ikon sarrafawa.^[4]

Manufar aikin weatherprediction.net shine don bincika rashin tabbas a cikin ma'auni daban-daban waɗanda dole ne a yi su a cikin na'urorin yanayi na zamani.[1]  Ana gudanar da ƙirar sau dubbai tare da ɗan ruɗani zuwa sigogin kimiyyar lissafi daban-daban ('babban taro') kuma aikin yana nazarin yadda fitowar samfurin ke canzawa.  Ba a san waɗannan sigogi daidai ba, kuma bambance-bambancen suna cikin abin da ake ɗauka a matsayin kewayo mai yuwuwa.  Wannan zai ba da damar aikin don inganta fahimtar yadda ƙirar ke da hankali ga ƙananan canje-canje da kuma abubuwa kamar canje-canje a cikin carbon dioxide da sulfur sake zagayowar.  A baya, dole ne a yi kiyasin canjin yanayi ta hanyar amfani da ɗaya ko, a mafi kyau, ƙaramin gungu (dubun maimakon dubbai) na ƙirar ƙira.  Ta hanyar amfani da kwamfutocin mahalarta, aikin zai sami damar inganta fahimta, da amincewa, hasashen canjin yanayi fiye da yadda zai yiwu ta amfani da na'urori masu girma da yawa a halin yanzu ga masana kimiyya.

Gwajin climatprediction.net an yi niyya ne don taimakawa " inganta hanyoyin da za a iya tantance rashin tabbas na tsinkaya yanayi da abubuwan da suka faru, gami da kwaikwayon hadin gwiwa na dogon lokaci ta amfani da samfuran rikitarwa", wanda Kwamitin Gwamnati kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC) ya gano a cikin 2001 a matsayin babban fifiko. Da fatan, gwajin zai ba masu yanke shawara ingantaccen tushen kimiyya don magance ɗayan manyan matsalolin duniya na ƙarni na 21.

Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin jadawali na sama, nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan suna da fa'idar rarraba sakamako akan lokaci.  Ga kowane lanƙwasa, a gefen dama mai nisa, akwai mashaya da ke nuna iyakar zafin jiki na ƙarshe don sigar ƙirar da ta dace.  Ci gaba zuwa gaba samfurin yana kara girma, mafi girman bambance-bambancen da ke tsakanin su.  Kusan rabin bambance-bambancen ya dogara da yanayin da zai tilasta yanayin gaba maimakon rashin tabbas a cikin ƙirar.  Duk wani raguwa a cikin waɗannan bambance-bambancen, ko daga mafi kyawun yanayi ko haɓakawa a cikin ƙira, ana so.  weatherprediction.net yana aiki akan rashin tabbas na ƙira, ba al'amuran ba.

A halin yanzu, masana kimiyya za su iya gudanar da samfura kuma su ga cewa x% na samfuran suna da digiri y don mayar da martani ga tilasta yanayi, amma ba su da tabbas game da ko x% kyakkyawan wakilci ne na yuwuwar faruwar hakan a duniyar gaske.  Wasu samfura za su yi kyau wasu kuma za su yi talauci wajen samar da yanayin da suka gabata lokacin da aka ba da tilastawa yanayin da suka gabata da yanayin farko (wato baya).  Yana da ma'ana don amincewa da samfuran da ke da kyau a sake ƙirƙirar abubuwan da suka gabata fiye da waɗanda ba su da kyau.  Don haka, samfuran da ba su da kyau za su kasance masu nauyi..^[1]

Misalai daban-daban da climateprediction.net ke da su kuma za su rarraba an ba da cikakken bayani a ƙasa a cikin tsari na lokaci. Sabili da haka, duk wanda ya shiga kwanan nan yana iya gudanar da tsarin haɗin gwiwa na ɗan lokaci.

• Classic Slab Model - Gwajin asali ba a ƙarƙashin BOINC ba. Dubi #Ainihin samfurin don ƙarin bayani. Wannan samfurin ya kasance ana amfani dashi kawai don gajeren OU.^[5]

Myles okAllen na farko tunani game da bukatar manyan yanayi ensembles a shekarar 1997, amma aka kawai gabatar da nasarar SETI @ gida a shekarar 1999. Na farko kudi shawara a Afrilu 1999 an ƙi shi a matsayin gaba ɗaya rashin gaskiya..

Bayan gabatarwa a Taron Yanayi na Duniya a Hamburg a watan Satumbar 1999 da kuma sharhi a cikin Nature ^[6] a watan Oktoba 1999, dubban sun sanya hannu kan wannan shirin da ake zaton yana nan gaba. Fashewar kumfa ba ta taimaka ba kuma aikin ya fahimci cewa dole ne su yi mafi yawan shirye-shiryen kansu maimakon fitarwa.

An ƙaddamar da shi a ranar 12 ga Satumba, 2003, kuma a ranar 13 ga Satumba، 2003, aikin ya wuce ƙarfin Earth Simulator don zama mafi girman wurin ƙirar yanayi a duniya.

Ƙaddamarwar shekarar 2003 ta ba da abokin ciniki "classic" kawai na Windows.  A ranar 26 ga Agusta 2004 an ƙaddamar da abokin ciniki na BOINC wanda ke tallafawa abokan cinikin Windows, Linux da Mac OS X.  "Classic" zai ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin shekaru masu yawa don tallafawa kwas ɗin Jami'ar Bude.  BOINC ta daina rarraba samfuran gargajiya don goyon bayan ƙirar zagayowar sulfur.  Abokin ciniki na BOINC mai sauƙin amfani da gidan yanar gizo mai suna GridRepublic, wanda ke goyan bayan weatherprediction.net da sauran ayyukan BOINC, an sake shi a cikin beta a cikin shekarar 2006.

An ƙaddamar da gwajin rage jinkirin zagayawa na thermohaline a cikin Mayu 2004 a ƙarƙashin tsarin al'ada don dacewa da fim ɗin Ranar Bayan Gobe.  Har yanzu ana iya gudanar da wannan shirin amma ba za a iya sauke shi ba.  An rubuta binciken kimiyya a cikin littafin Nick Faull.  Har yanzu ba a kammala takarda game da kasidu ba.  Babu wani ƙarin bincike da aka tsara tare da wannan samfurin.

An ƙaddamar da samfurin sake zagayowar sulfur a watan Agustan shekara ta 2005. Sun dauki lokaci mai tsawo don kammalawa fiye da samfuran asali sakamakon samun matakai biyar maimakon uku. Kowane lokaci ya fi rikitarwa.

Ya zuwa Nuwamba 2005, yawan sakamakon da aka kammala ya kai 45,914 classic models, 3,455 thermohaline models, 85,685 BOINC models da 352 sulfur cycle models. Wannan ya wakilci sama da shekaru miliyan 6 da aka tsara.

A watan Fabrairun shekara ta 2006, aikin ya ci gaba zuwa tsarin yanayi na gaskiya. An ƙaddamar da gwajin canjin yanayi na BBC ^[7] wanda ya jawo hankalin mahalarta 23,000 a rana ta farko. Tsarin yanayi na ɗan lokaci ya gabatar da teku na ainihi. Wannan ya ba da damar gwajin don bincika canje-canje a cikin martani na yanayi yayin da aka canza yanayin yanayi, maimakon amsawar daidaituwa ga gagarumin canji kamar ninka matakin carbon dioxide. Sabili da haka, gwajin yanzu ya ci gaba da yin hindcast na shekarar 1920 zuwa 2000 da kuma hasashen 2000 zuwa 2080. Wannan samfurin yana ɗaukar lokaci mai tsawo.

BBC ta ba da tallace-tallace na aikin tare da kwamfutoci sama da 120,000 masu shiga a cikin makonni uku na farko.

A watan Maris na shekara ta 2006, an saki wani samfurin ƙuduri mai girma a matsayin wani aikin, Shirin Bayar da Bayani na Yanayi.

A watan Afrilu na shekara ta 2006, an gano samfuran da aka haɗa suna da matsala ta shigar da bayanai. Aikin ya kasance da amfani don wani dalili daban fiye da yadda aka tallata. Dole ne a ba da sababbin samfuran.^[8][9]

An buga sakamakon farko na gwajin a cikin Nature a watan Janairun 2005, yana nuna cewa tare da ƙananan canje-canje ga sigogi a cikin kewayon da suka dace, samfuran na iya nuna yanayin yanayi daga ƙasa da 2 ° C zuwa fiye da 11 ° C.^[10] An kalubalanci ƙwarewar yanayi mafi girma kamar yadda ba za a iya yarda da shi ba. Misali, ta hanyar Gavin Schmidt (mai tsara yanayin yanayi tare da Cibiyar Nazarin Space ta NASA a New York). ^[11]  

Akwai gajeren karatun Open University ^[5] da kayan koyarwa ^[16] don makarantu don koyar da batutuwa da suka shafi yanayi da yanayin yanayi. Har ila yau, akwai kayan koyarwa don amfani a Key Stage 3/4 Kimiyya, A matakin Physics (Advanced Physics), Key Stage 3 / 4 Mathematics, Key Stage / 3/4 Geography, 21st Century Science, Science for Public Understanding, Amfani da Mathematics.

Ana gudanar da gwajin na asali tare da HadSM3, wanda shine yanayin HadAM3 daga ƙirar HadCM3 amma tare da tekun "slab" kawai maimakon cikakken teku mai ƙarfi. Wannan yana da sauri (kuma yana buƙatar ƙarancin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya) fiye da cikakken samfurin, amma ba shi da ra'ayi mai ƙarfi daga teku, waɗanda aka haɗa su cikin cikakkun nau'ikan yanayin yanayin tekun da ake amfani da su don yin hasashen canjin yanayi zuwa 2100.

Kowane samfurin da aka sauke ya zo tare da ɗan bambanci a cikin sigogi daban-daban.

A cikin farkon "mataki na daidaitawa" na shekaru 15 na samfurin, samfurin yana lissafin "gyaran kwarara"; ƙarin kwararar teku da ake buƙata don kiyaye samfurin teku a cikin daidaituwa (kayan samfurin teku ba ya haɗa da raƙuman ruwa; waɗannan kwararru har zuwa wani matakin sun maye gurbin zafi wanda za'a ɗauka ta hanyar raƙuman da suka ɓace).

A cikin "mataki na sarrafawa" na shekaru 15, ana ba da izinin yanayin zafi na teku ya bambanta. Dole ne gyaran gyare-gyare ya ci gaba da daidaita samfurin, amma ra'ayoyin sun bunkasa a wasu daga cikin gudu. Akwai binciken kula da inganci, bisa ga matsakaicin yanayin zafi na shekara-shekara, kuma samfuran da suka kasa wannan binciken an watsar da su.

A cikin "mataki na CO₂ sau biyu", abun ciki na CO₂ nan take ya ninka sau biyu kuma samfurin yana gudana na ƙarin shekaru 15, wanda a wasu lokuta ba isasshen lokacin samfurin ba ne don daidaitawa zuwa sabon (mai dumi). A wannan matakin an sake watsar da wasu samfuran da suka samar da sakamakon da ba daidai ba.

Binciken kula da inganci a cikin sarrafawa da matakai ₂ * CO2 sun kasance marasa ƙarfi: sun isa su cire samfuran da ba na jiki ba amma ba su haɗa da (alal misali) gwajin kwaikwayon sake zagayowar yanayi ba; saboda haka wasu samfuran da aka wuce har yanzu ba su da tabbas. Ana ci gaba da inganta matakan kula da inganci.

Yawan zafin jiki a cikin ninki biyu na CO₂ an kara shi don yin aiki da daidaitattun zafin jiki. Bambanci a cikin zafin jiki tsakanin wannan da matakin sarrafawa sa'an nan kuma yana ba da ma'auni na Yanayin yanayi na wannan nau'in samfurin.

Yawancin ayyukan lissafi na sa kai suna da masu tantancewa don nuna aikin aikace-aikacen, amma yawanci ba sa nuna sakamakon sa yayin da ake lissafa su. Sabanin haka, climateprediction.net ba wai kawai yana amfani da hangen nesa ba don nuna yanayin duniya da ake tsarawa, amma yana da ma'amala wanda ke ba da damar nuna fannoni daban-daban na yanayi (zazzabi, ruwan sama, da sauransu). Bugu da ƙari, akwai wasu shirye-shiryen gani masu ci gaba waɗanda ke bawa mai amfani damar ganin ƙarin abin da samfurin ke yi (yawanci ta hanyar nazarin sakamakon da aka samar a baya) da kuma kwatanta gudu da samfuran daban-daban.

Bayanan tebur na ainihi don samfurin da aka ƙaddamar a shekara ta 2003 an haɓaka shi ^[17] ta hanyar Jeremy Walton a NAG, yana bawa masu amfani damar bin diddigin ci gaban kwaikwayon su yayin da girgije da zafin jiki ke canzawa a saman duniya. Sauran, shirye-shiryen gani masu ci gaba da ake amfani da su sun haɗa da CPView da IDL Advanced Visualisation. Suna da irin wannan aiki. Martin Sykes ne ya rubuta CPView, wanda ya shiga cikin gwajin. Andy Heaps na Jami'ar Reading (UK) ne ya rubuta IDL Advanced Visualisation, kuma an gyara shi don aiki tare da sigar BOINC ta Tesella Support Services plc.

CPView ne kawai ke ba ka damar duba binciken da ba a saba gani ba, maimakon yanayin zafi, matsin lamba, ruwan sama, dusar ƙanƙara, da girgije.^[18] Za'a iya nuna bayanai har zuwa 5 a taswira. Har ila yau, yana da ayyuka masu yawa kamar Max, Min, ƙarin ayyukan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, da sauran fasalulluka.

Advanced Visualisation yana da ayyuka don zane-zane na yankuna na gida da sama da rana 1, kwanaki 2, da kwanaki 7, da kuma zane-zane da aka saba da su na kakar da matsakaicin shekara-shekara (wanda duka kunshe-kunshe biyu ke yi). Har ila yau akwai Latitude - Tsayin tsawo da Lokaci - Tsayin.

Girman saukewa ya fi karami don CPView kuma CPView yana aiki tare da Windows 98.

Ya zuwa Disamba 2008 babu wani kayan aikin gani wanda ke aiki tare da sabbin samfuran CPDN. Ba a sabunta CPView ko Advanced Visualisation don nuna bayanan da aka tattara daga waɗancan samfuran ba. Don haka masu amfani zasu iya ganin bayanan ne kawai ta hanyar mai kula da allo.

Gwajin Canjin Yanayi na BBC wani aikin BOINC ne wanda Jami'ar Oxford ta jagoranta tare da abokan tarayya da yawa ciki har da Ofishin Met na Burtaniya, BBC, Jami'ar Open da Jami'ar Reading. Wannan shi ne samfurin da aka haɗa na ɗan lokaci na aikin climateprediction.net.

Yawancin mahalarta sun shiga aikin tare da sama da mutane 120,000 da suka shiga cikin ƙungiyoyi.^[19]

Sakamakon ya ci gaba da tattara wani lokaci tare da shirin talabijin na gaba da aka watsa a watan Janairun 2007. A ranar 8 ga watan Maris na shekara ta 2009, climateprediction.net ya bayyana a hukumance cewa an gama gwajin canjin yanayi na BBC, kafin a rufe aikin.